The Indonesian Biodiesel Manufacturers Association (APROBI) predicts that the country will be able to export up to 2 million kiloliters (kl) of unmixed biodiesel in 2019 according to an “optimistic scenario,” Paulus Tyakravan, vice chairman of the association, told reporters on Thursday May 2.

According to the “pessimistic scenario”, the export of biodiesel this year will be about 1–1.2 million. This is comparable to the export of 1.78 million cells of biodiesel last year.

The “pessimistic scenario” takes into account that this year the European Union will establish countervailing duties on Indonesian biodiesel. At the end of 2018, the EU launched an investigation into subsidizing Indonesian biofuels.

Indonesia resumed biodiesel exports to Europe early last year after the World Trade Organization (WTO) ruled in its favor on a number of issues that Jakarta posed to previous anti-dumping duties imposed by the EU on its biodiesel supplies.

According to the association, in the first quarter of this year, the total volume of Indonesian biodiesel exports amounted to 173,542 cells, which is 78% more than the same period last year. Shipments were mainly directed to the EU and China.

According to APROBI data, published on May 2, in the domestic market of Indonesia, biodiesel consumption in the first quarter more than doubled: from 659,813.51 cells last year to the current 1.5 million cells.